Hey Alexa,
First off, I think you'll find answers to your questions (and further dialogue leading from your post) in this section:
http://www.mywriterscircle.com/index.php?board=16.0I noticed there's even a post included there referrencing one of the authors (Amanda Hocking) mentioned in that article you linked to.
Since I'm here, I figured I'd give my two-cents on the issue.
The Konrath Eisler talk covered a lot of information, but let's focus on the bit you highlighted: That Eisler had turned down a six-figure book deal to self-publish.
Well, it should be mentioned, straight off, that Eisler is an established author, as he mentions in the interview. He was not a first-time novelis. As such, he has a built-in fanbase, one he knows and trusts. He can (presumably) depend on them to spend half a mil or more on his newest title. In fact, you should look through that list of authors mentioned by Konrath and see how many of them sold their first novels through publishers only to later move onto self-publishing (and taking their established fan base with them).
For a first-time novelist, I think (as always) it's a game of numbers.
Check out this link:
http://critique.org/c/blog/It's fairly long too, so allow me to summarize a little. Essentially, it atates that according to some research, the avergae advance for a first time novel is $5000 (and that's just based on this guy's research--it could be less than that). That's not much. But consider this, to make up for that, you'd have to sell 714 copies of your self-published novel, at $9.99 a pop (you keep %70, or $7) through Amazon.
Now, granted, you get to sell it right away and a very low cost. But ask yourself, how will you get people to buy your book? You (I'm guessing) don't have the built-in fanbase of a Barry Eisler or Scoot Nicholson. In fact, I thought both Eisler and Konrath were being rather misleading in saying that, with e-publishing, authors could now simply advertize through their work, freeing up more time for writing since it was n longer necessary to spend so much time on blogs and social networks trying to sell your book. I'm thinking those are the words of wriiters who have achieved a certain level of success and promptly lost touch with what it is to be a first time novelist. Just look at the list of authors in that article and then see how many of them have their own blogs, websites, facebook pages and so on.
Indie bands can tour like crazy to make themselves known and build word of mouth--writers have to advertize too.
Now, it is true that e-books are there forever so, though you might only sell a copie or two right now, in the long run, you might hit that 714 or even 100 mark. Depends on how patient you are in that case.
So, I think anyone considering the e-book route (and hoping to make money at it--I'm not talking people who just want to see their stuff in print and that's enough--though that's great and fine if it's your goal) needs to ask themselves a few questions. For one, do you think you can sell your novel to a publisher for at least $5000? And second, do you think you can sell 714 copies your novel as an e-book at 9.99 a pop?
If the answer to both questions is no, your novel probably still needs work and you know it.
If you answered yes to the first and no to the second, you're deluded and think agents and publishers are dumber than they are.
If you answered no to the first and yes to the second, well, maybe e-publishing is your best bet. $7 here and there is better than nothing and, if by some chance you actually sell a substantial number of copies (714 is not substantial--30'000 would be substantial) of your novel, you could use that as a selling point to a publisher on your next work.
Hopefully, you answered yes to both, in which case, why not try getting an agent and selling to a publisher and, if that doesn't work, the e-book route is always there to be taken.
All that said, Eisler and Konrath made very good points: there's no doubt that changes have to be made. Publishers are, without a doubt, far behind and still in a certain denial about the way things are going. But to say that they are obsolete and that authors can just publish an e-book and make it big without a publisher or agent? There are exceptions (there are always exceptions) but, overall, I don't think we're there quite yet.
Oh, and just to put things in perspective: Eisler will have to sell 71'400 copies of his book to make up that half-million, and I'm sure he'll do it--proof that he isn't like you or me and we aren't like him. Not yet.
Anyway, interesting article and I think you should share it with everyone in the self-publishing section (posted above).
Thanks for sharing, Alexa
Andre
